Should We get back to Market Now?

We just had another relief rally today from the "good" news from Europe. But I don't think it will last.
Here is what the experts are saying now:

Thursday Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US stock market is poised to open higher today after yesterday's strength from a better than expected ADP report. The good news for the rally of the past few couple days is heavier volume to the upside. However, because of the global recession threat, I am not sure if this rally can last. I would use this opportunity to lighten up some of my positions. The pass away news of the Great Former Apple CEO Steve Jobs is the sad news of the day. His legacy will live on! He is the Elvis Presley of the Tech World. He will be missed.

High Stocks:
(ZUMZ) - Better than expected September sale.
(ESRX) - Cuts outlook and yet it is trading up pre-open. This is something news to see. Perhaps it is telling us something that the stock is cheap?
(ESIC) - micro-cap on the rise on earning.

Down Stocks:
(AAPL) - related to the dead of Steve Jobs. I think it will bounce back if the market is still good.
(YHOO) - perhaps less certain about the buyout deal in the near future?

Friday Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US Stocks market is expected to open lower today because of the late sell-off at the close yesterday, as well as the global recession. Traders and investors are not in the mode of buying anything in a big way cause the stock market to cut the earlier gain yesterday. I expect this pattern to continue until we can see a better environment for investments.

Up Stocks:
(HRBN) - Chinese company is proposed to go private at $24. A gimmick for them to get out?
Not many stocks that are up today.

Down Stocks:
(NFLX) - expect to trade below $100 very soon. It is broken to the downside.
(SINA), (SOHU), (BIDU) - Chinese companies on accounting issues probed by DOJ. Chinese stocks should be avoided now. See my previous posts.

Wednesday Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US stock market is poised to continue its winning streak for the week from yesterday's German bailout plan for Greece. Unfortunately the market settled at the low point of yesterday's rally with normal volumes. The big buyers are not quite back yet. More volume indications are needed to satisfy the bulls.

Up Stocks:
(NFLX) - Dead cat bounce?
(JBL) - good earning report
(ACN) - good guidance
(CHK) - drilling success from one of its wells.

Down Stocks:
(AVGO) - insiders dump a big chunk of shares.

Tuesday Pre-Market Stocks Movers

The US stock market is poised to rise again this morning after Germany confirmed its loans to Greece. The global stock markets have been trading in a yo-yo fashion because of the global economy and the debt crisis mainly from Greece and other nations. This could be the first step toward stability to come. Hopefully the S&P and Nasdaq support lines can be held. We have tested several times in the past few weeks. It seems to be held now. The next thing to watch is the heavier volume to the upside.

Personally I think we have seen the peak for Gold and Silver now. I would lighten up some positions if you have not done so in the past few session.

Up Stocks:
(AMZN) - I think we can have a decent sale from Amazon this holiday season, perhaps the optimism is back to this stock as well as its ability to compete with (NFLX). Maybe (NFLX) can be taken by Amazon.
(A) - Unusual call options have placed yesterday on this stock, the trend continues.
(YRCW) - Penny stock to cut change the top level folks.
(ARMH) - Rebound from the recent sell-off. I think it is the Intel of the future.

Down Stocks:
(SQQQ) - bear ETF, as well as other bear ETFs will be down.
(WAG) - Down after earning, maybe investors do not like what they saw in the report.

Stocks to Watch for Next Week

The US stock market got hammered last week. It was one of the worst weeks since late 2008. Without any good news from anywhere, it maybe hard to invest in the market now. The once safe heaven GOLD and Silver were down along with the stock market. So there is no place to park right now. But on the other hand, interest rates are so low and the housing market is still terrible, I think not every investors will abandon the stock market yet.

Earning for the week of 9/26 - 9/30 will be:

• Monday: CALM, FGP
• Tuesday: AM, NEOG, WAG, ACN, CMTL, JBL, OMN, PAYX, PRGS, SABA, ZZ, SMSC, and SNX.
• Wednesday: ATU, DRI, FDO, MKC, MOS, TXI, WOR.
• Thursday: AZZ, CHINA, DMAN, MU, XRTX.

Friday Pre-market Stock Movers

As expected, the US stock market is poised to trade lower before the opening bell. There are many factors for this bear trend now: global recessions, lose confidence with the US law makers who can't seem to work together for the greater goods of the US economy (As many said in many polls, these guys or gals are merely for themselves, it is quite shameful for this great nation), and FedEx lower guidance yesterday (shipping down dramatically). FedEx will have a really indication on what consumers and corporations will buy and sell.

Up Stocks:
All the bear ETFs.

Down Stocks:
(CAVM) - lower guidance from the company.
(GOLD) - even gold miner and golds are trading down now

Here are some stock buying ideas for the current recession:
the-six-safest-stocks-around
3-stocks-that-will-still-be-leaders-in-10-years

Thursday Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US stock market is poised to trade lower this morning. Based on the past trading sessions, the uptrend pattern is broken now. We need to be very cautious now. Bears are back now.

UP Stocks:
(SQQQ) - bear trade, we can guess why this ETF is up.
(NFLX) - Dead cat bounced from the recent selloffs. I think it is going to trader below $100 soon.

Down Stocks:
(WPRT) - high beta stock from recent strong gains to head lower, self correcting and keep your eyes on this when the bulls are back.
(LOGI) - The blood never stops on this company. More bad news regarding lower guidance from the company.

Thursday Pre-market Stock Movers

The US stock market is poised to start trading lower this morning. Perhaps waiting for the FED meeting announcement this afternoon. Correction from a series of advance sessions is not out of the ordinary. The trend won't change until we are seeing heavier selling on the down days.

Up Stocks:
(ORCL) - Big cap with decent earnings. If you want safety in this kind of environment, it is not a bad one to own now.
(ADBE) - Missed earning but decent outlook. New version of flash coming out.

Down Stocks:
(WLT) - gauidance cut by the company. Time to get out. They are in the same industries as (ANR) and (BTU). I would avoid this sector.

Tuesday Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US stock market is poised to have some gain this morning. The reasons for such are several folds: market reversed heavy lose yesterday, news from Greece on its loans, and gains from Europe. I believe the trend is still intact for the bulls until we see changes.

Up Stocks:
(SPU) - Chinese penny stock moving up without any news. I would avoid any Chinese related stocks, except the well-known big companies. Here is an interesting article from Bloomberg regarding Chinese stocks, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/chinese-protest-5-billion-losses-tied-to-u-s-reverse-mergers.html
(AAPL) - iPhone5 is coming. iPads are taking market shares from rivals. Up on the down day yesterday.
(ARMH) - Riding on the success of iPhones and Android phones.

Down Stocks:
(MCP) - Downgrade from JPMorgan, cuts price from $105 to $66. WOW! Analyst surely knows how to downgrade.
(MLNX) - Issuing more stocks.
(NFLX) - Down again today. Too pricey contents and too much competitions. Here is one interesting article from Market place regarding its future.

Stocks to Watch for Next Week

These companies will report earnings this coming week.
Monday: LEN, ARAY.
Tuesday: AZO, CCL, CAG, FDS, JEF, ADBE, ALOG, and ORCL.
Wednesday: GIS, IHS, BBBY, FUL, MLHR, RHT, and SCS.
Thursday: KMX, DFS, FDX, RAD, SCHL, MTM, CTAS, FINL, NKE, and TIBX.
Friday: KBH.

I think (BBBY) and (RHT) can be a high percentage mover in either direction. Watch how they will be traded on the day before earning. Volume and direction will be the keys.

Friday Midday Stock Movers

The US stock market moved higher this Friday. It did not pullback like I expected. It is the fifth day of advances. We have not seen this kind of strong trend for many weeks. It is definitely good news for the Bulls. Although I would like to see more volumes to the upsides than the previous weeks, but we can take the advances any day without any complaints,

Up Stocks:
(DMND) - Diamond Foods, Inc. upped its outlook yesterday after close. Today's trading volume is over 1800% over normal volumes. A very powerful move to the upside. It is the "future" big consumer name in the making. You may said, "are you nuts?!" That is right, they make money by growing NUTS. Nuts is good and HEALTHY. It is the trend for future healthy snack foods. Diamond Foods dominates the nut markets.
(RPXC) - Secondary following offering of its stocks.

Down Stocks:
(RIMM) - Earning and guidance missed. It is another mobile casualty by Google and Apple. Another Nokia companion in the dead mobile sea. It has no future until its strategy changes.
(NFLX) - Like I mentioned yesterday, high flyer can grow at the rate from its past until it can get its subscribers back as well as its contents back.

Pre-Market Stock Moves

The US stock market is poised to open higher this morning from the strength of Europe and upticks from recent session gains. On a very short term basis, I smell some minor pull-backs coming either today or tomorrow. If you bought 3x bull ETFs, I would unwind some positions today and keep the rest until the market turns.

Up Stocks:
(TSPT) - Penny stock on the move because FDA recommends its drug. I would watch out for this kind of speculative play. First day maybe fine, but most of the time, you will lose money . It is very small cap and thinly traded.
(ARX) - Buy rating from Goldman Sachs. The stock was added to the firm's Americas Conviction Buy List. The stock was hammered recently. I will wait for pullback before getting it.

Down Stocks:
(NFLX) - lower guidance from Netflix itself. I expect further deteriorations in the coming days and weeks, until it can sign up more contents.
(CISG) - Small Chinese stock, the company withdrew its private takeover. I smell bad book keeping. Did you see that from yesterday's (SEED)? Avoid small Chinese stocks.
(AIXT) - Lower gauidance, avoid!

Stocks to Watch Midday

The stock market had a sea-saw battle this morning. I believe the mini uptrend is still intact as shown in the past few sessions and this morning. As long as no huge volume to the downside, any dip is a buying opportunity. If you want to earn money fast, buy the 3x Bull ETFs, such as (TNA), (ERX), (FAS), (TYH),or (SOXL).

Up Stocks (more than normal volumes):
(STMP) - Replacement for USPS?
(NVDA) - related to Windows 8 announcement?
(ARMH) - see (NVDA)

Down Stocks (more than normal volumes):
(RGLD) - gold related stocks, if Europe settles, gold going down. I think will trade between $1700 - $1900 for now

Wisdoms From the Legendary Trader

We can always learn a lot from the Pros when it comes to investment. I found this article "Trading Wisdom From Retiring Legend Bruce Kovner" from Business insider is worth our reading. Here are some of the highlights from the article.

Bruce Kovner, one of the original Commodities Corp superstars, is hanging up his jersey after 28 years of trading. Via Bloomberg:

Bruce Kovner, the billionaire co- founder of Caxton Associates LP, is retiring from the $10 billion hedge fund, ending a three-decade run during which he traded everything from soybeans to Japanese yen futures and returned twice as much as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

“After 34 years in the trading business and more than 28 years leading Caxton, the time has come to hand the leadership of the company to a new generation,” Kovner, 66, wrote…

Kovner’s main Caxton Global Investment fund has returned an average of 21 percent a year since inception, compared with an average gain of 11 percent including dividends by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The $7 billion fund had one losing year, in 1994, when it fell 2.5 percent. Since 1983, the S&P has fallen in five calendar years, including a 37 percent decline in 2008. The top returns have helped Kovner amass a fortune estimated at $4.5 billion, according to Forbes magazine.

Kovner was also one of the best interviews in the original Market Wizards series.
Some selected excerpts below jump:


On protecting emotional equilibrium:
To this day, when something happens to disturb my emotional equilibrium and my sense of what the world is like, I close out all positions related to that event.
On the first rule of trading:
The first rule of trading — there are probably many first rules — is don’t get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand.
On making a million:
Michael [Marcus] taught me one thing that was incredibly important… He taught me that you could make a million dollars. He showed me that if you applied yourself, great things could happen. It is very easy to miss the point that you really can do it. He showed me that if you take a position and use discipline, you can actually make it.”
On allowing for mistakes:
He also taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
On elements of a successful trading:
I’m not sure one can really define why some traders make it, while others do not. For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.
[Successful traders are] strong, independent, and contrary in the extreme. They are able to take positions others are unwilling to take. They are disciplined enough to take the right size positions. A greedy trader always blows out.
On having a market view:
I almost always trade on a market view; I don’t trade simply on technical information. I use technical analysis a great deal and it is terrific, but I can’t hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.
…there are well-informed traders who know much more than I do. I simply put things together… The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
On technical analysis:
Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo… There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
…For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.
…Technical analysis reflects the voice of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely critical and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.
On trading ranges and price patterns:
…as a trader who has seen a great deal and been in a lot of markets, there is nothing disconcerting to me about a price move out of a trading range that nobody understands.
…Tight congestions in which a breakout occurs for reasons that nobody understands are usually good risk/reward trades.
…The more a price pattern is observed by speculators, the more prone you are to have false signals. The more a market is the product of nonspeculative activity, the greater the significance of technical breakouts.
…The general rule is: the less observed, the better the trade.
On predetermined risk points:
Whenever I enter a position, I have a predetermined stop. That is the only way I can sleep. I know where I’m getting out before I get in. The position size on a trade is determined by the stop, and the stop is determined on a technical basis… I always put my stop behind some technical barrier.”
I never think about [stop vulnerability], because the point about a technical barrier — and I’ve studied the technical aspects of the market for a long time — is that the market shouldn’t go there if you are right.
On the emotional burden of trading:
The emotional burden of trading is substantial; on any given day, I could lose millions of dollars. If you personalize these losses, you can’t trade.
On imagining alternative scenarios:
One of the jobs of a good trader is to imagine alternative scenarios. I try to form many different mental pictures of what the world should be like and wait for one of them to be confirmed. You keep trying them on one at at a time. Inevitably, most of these pictures will turn out to be wrong — that is, only a few elements of the picture may prove correct. But then, all of a sudden, you will find that in one picture, nine out of ten elements click. That scenario then becomes your image of the world reality.
On seeking vulnerable consensus:
What I am really looking for is a consensus the market is not confirming. I like to know that there are a lot of people who are going to be wrong.
On stocks vs commodities:
The stock market has far more short-term countertrends. After the market has gone up, it always wants to come down. The commodity markets are driven by supply and demand for physical goods; if there is a true shortage, prices will tend to keep trending higher.
On trading too big:
My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking 5 to 10 percent risks on a trade when they should be taking 1 to 2 percent risks.
On the dangers of correlation:
Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/wisdom-from-kovner-2011-9

Pre-market Stock Movers

Like I have stated yesterday, I believe market is in a short term uptrend now. Get some beaten down powerful movers stocks can be quite rewarding. (MSFT) may have momentum to the upside. The clue is Window 8 is coming. It is the OS for tablet and PC. The tablet interface is similar to the iPad, and the other interface is the traditional PC Windows interface. Perhaps Microsoft "iTune" is in the work. I will buy the stock before Window 8 is a hot topic soon. See the review for yourself:  

Stocks to the Upside: (ORCL) - upgraded (JAKK) - Oaktree Capital is bidding for the company Stocks to the Downside: (SOA) - lowers guidance (SEED) - another publicly traded company from China, avoid the small stocks from China

Pre-Market Stock Movers

The US market trims loses before the opening bell this morning. I believe the market wants to higher whenever it finds a chance to do so. Stocks to the upside: (SODA) - "BUY" initiated by Janney Capital. (AET) - upbeat guidance Stocks to the downside: (SWI) - Morgan Stanley downgraded

Pre-market Movers Monday Morning

Market Movers to the Upside:

EnerNOC, Inc.

$ 12.65

1.77  16.27%

15,524

Power-One, Inc.

$ 7.50

0.61  8.85%

69,974

First Solar, Inc.

$ 87.40

2.44  2.87%

22,179

Biosante Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$ 2.80

0.05  1.82%

27,130

Dorchester Minerals, L.P.

$ 23.45

0.03  0.13%

50,000

Market Movers to the Down Side:

Cambium Learning Group, Inc.

$ 2.67

0.26  8.87%

400,000

Questcor Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

$ 27.50

2.17  7.31%

10,560

Travelzoo Inc

$ 30.80

1.45  4.50%

24,495

SodaStream International Ltd.

$ 37.02

1.73  4.46%

5,430

Broadcom Corporation $ 32.10 1.34  4.01% 48,425 lululemon athletica inc. $ 52.87 2.19  3.98% 15,674

Company Earnings Scheduled for Week of 9/12 - 9/16

• Monday: BRC.
• Tuesday: BBY, CBRL, LRN, and WNI.
• Wednesday: APOG, ASNA, and CLC.
• Thursday: PIR, AIR, DMND, and RIMM.

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